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118 results for “political risk”
Brazil Real Lost Carry Appeal as 2022 Election Risk Premium Outweighed High Selic Rate
A look back at the 2022 election cycle shows how the political risk premium, centered on the race between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, caused major financial institutions to abandon the Brazilian Real's carry trade despite high domestic interest rates.
Electoral Jitters Drive ‘Binary Trade’ on Brazil’s Petrobras and Banco do Brasil
Investors are hedging against the sharp policy shifts expected from Brazil’s presidential election, focusing on key state-owned enterprises.
Political Risk Closes Door on Cemig Privatization in Minas Gerais Gubernatorial Race
Political opposition from leading candidates and strong public sentiment have stalled the privatization of Brazil's Cemig, raising political risk for investors.
Brazil’s Record Grain Harvest Undercut by 85% Fertilizer Import Squeeze
Brazil's agriculture sector, a global food guarantor, faces major cost risk and geopolitical exposure due to its 85% reliance on imported fertilizer.
US Tech Firms Freeze Billions in Brazil Data Center Investment Pending Election Outcome
Hyperscale companies are holding back crucial AI infrastructure spending in Brazil, citing high political risk ahead of the country's October election.
Tied Brazil Election Polls Drive Risk Premium, Complicating Central Bank’s Rate Cut Cycle
A statistical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro caused Brazil's Real and Bovespa to slide, adding political risk to the economy.
Tight Polls Drive Brazilian Real Volatility as Political Risk Premium Surges
The Brazilian Real and local equities face sustained volatility as presidential election polls tighten, forcing investors to price in a higher political risk premium tied to future fiscal policy.
Brazil’s Fuel Subsidy Tab Hits R$9.9 Billion as Petrobras Stabilizes Diesel Price Ahead of Election
State-controlled Petrobras confirms R$9.9 billion in government subsidies to cap fuel prices, highlighting political risk before the October election.
Brazil’s Top Electoral Court Admits Suit Seeking to Invalidate Lula-Alckmin Presidential Ticket
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) formally admitted a lawsuit from rival Flávio Bolsonaro seeking to revoke President Lula and Vice-President Alckmin's ticket over a 2026 Carnival parade.
Lula Avoids Supreme Court Crisis Topic at UN as Institutional Tensions Fuel Brazil’s Political Risk
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will exclude Brazil's deepening judicial crisis from his UN speech, classifying the STF conflict as an internal matter.
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Locked in Statistical Tie for 2026 Brazil Presidential Election
Recent Datafolha and BTG/Nexus polls confirm a statistical tie between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, raising political uncertainty ahead of the October vote.
US Pressure Campaign on Brazil’s Supreme Court, Election Tied to Trade Tariffs
Diplomatic sources indicate the US sought judicial guarantees and 'dissident' protection as conditions to lower tariffs, injecting geopolitical risk into the Brazil election.
Brazil Supreme Court Crisis Deepens Over Corruption Allegations and Judicial Feud
An unprecedented conflict within Brazil's Supreme Court over a massive banking scandal is fueling concerns from political risk analysts about institutional degradation.
Technical Tie and High Rejection Signal Intense Polarization in Brazil Presidential Race
A Datafolha poll released two weeks before the election shows President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie, confirming high political risk.
Statistical Tie in Brazilian Presidential Runoff Heightens Political Risk, Weighs on Markets
A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie for the October runoff, driving new volatility in Brazilian assets.
Judicial Order on ‘Master Case’ Documents Spikes Brazilian Real’s Political Risk
Brazil’s Supreme Court unsealed documents on Friday linking presidential candidate Senator Flávio Bolsonaro to a massive financial scandal, sending the Real lower against the US Dollar.
Brazil’s Electoral Court Bans Politically-Motivated Highway Police Stops Ahead of 2026 Election
The Superior Electoral Court and Ministry of Justice issued a joint ordinance restricting Federal Highway Police actions to prevent voter suppression seen in the 2022 general election.
Brazil’s Two-Front Regulatory War on US Big Tech Ratchets Up Political and Compliance Risk
Brazil is setting up a major regulatory clash with US technology giants through a new antitrust bill and a Supreme Court ruling on content liability.
Brazil’s Small-Cap Discount Nears Record High as High Rates and Political Risk Bite
The valuation gap between Brazilian small-cap and large-cap stocks is near a historical high, reflecting severe investor aversion to local political and interest-rate uncertainty.
Statistical Tie in Brazil Presidential Race Brings Back Political Risk Premium to the Real
The Brazilian Real weakened sharply after new polls showed incumbent President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie, reintroducing a political risk premium to the currency.
Saudi Pipeline Attack Pushes Oil Past $108, Straining Brazilian Banks
A drone strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has pushed Brent crude past $108, threatening a prolonged high-interest-rate cycle and rising credit risk for Brazilian lenders.
Bolsonaro’s Son Takes First Numerical Lead Over Lula in New Brazil Election Poll
The latest Quaest poll shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leading President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 42% to 40% in a hypothetical runoff, signaling a sharp increase in electoral risk ahead of the October vote.
Internal Resistance From Top Brass Defused Bolsonaro’s 2022 Coup Plot, Police Records Show
Accounts from former commanders of the Brazilian Armed Forces reveal key resistance that stopped Jair Bolsonaro's alleged plan to overturn the 2022 election.
Brazil Real Decouples from Global Dollar Trend on Shifting Election Trade
The Brazilian Real recently moved against the global strengthening of the US Dollar, driven by a domestic "electoral trade" focused on reduced political risk premium ahead of the presidential vote.
Political Risk Skyrockets as Outsider Augusto Cury Enters Statistical Tie with Lula and Bolsonaro
A Datafolha poll showing best-selling author Augusto Cury in a statistical tie with President Lula introduces significant political uncertainty into Brazil's election.
Unsealed Banco Master Evidence Escalates Political Probe Targeting Bolsonaro Allies
Supreme Court unseals documents linking disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro and the massive Banco Master fraud to top political allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro, intensifying election-year scrutiny.
Public Clash Between Top Justices Deepens Brazil Constitutional Crisis, Elevating Political Risk
A public dispute between Supreme Court Justices Alexandre de Moraes and André Mendonça over a banking probe has intensified an institutional crisis, fueling political uncertainty ahead of the October elections.
Brazil’s Political Risk Spikes Long-Term Rates After Supreme Court Unseals Master Case
Long-term interest rates in Brazil jumped on Friday after the Supreme Federal Court unsealed documents in a massive political-financial fraud scandal.
Statistical Tie in Brazil Presidential Polls Drives Market Volatility Ahead of October Election
A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows President Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie, re-pricing political risk in Brazil.
Brazil’s Consumption Tax Reform Becomes Political Flashpoint as Business Leaders Urge Presidential Candidates to Protect Law
A manifesto from specialists and business leaders is warning presidential candidates against halting the critical IVA Dual tax reform, citing political risk.