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Bolsonaro’s Son Takes First Numerical Lead Over Lula in New Brazil Election Poll
The latest Quaest poll shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leading President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 42% to 40% in a hypothetical runoff, signaling a sharp increase in electoral risk ahead of the October vote.

Brazil Real Hits R$5.16 as Deepening Political Instability Fuels Investor Anxiety
Heightened political uncertainty surrounding the presidential election and a crisis at the Supreme Court pushed the Brazilian Real to R$5.16 against the US Dollar on Monday.

Lula Government Uses R$6.6 Billion Subsidy Package to Cut Fuel Price Ahead of Election
Brazil's government cut federal taxes on gasoline and boosted a diesel subsidy in a R$6.6 billion move to control fuel prices and inflation before the presidential election.

Lula Demands Full Transparency in Banco Master Scandal, Calls It Brazil’s ‘Biggest Financial Crime’
President Lula called for the "complete lifting of the confidentiality" in the Banco Master case to address an "institutional crisis" in Brazil’s judiciary.

Brazil’s Farm Credit Deploys R$65.7 Billion in Two Months as New Environmental Rules Take Hold
Brazilian agribusiness quickly accessed R$65.7 billion of the record R$525.1 billion Plano Safra, with new environmental rules linking subsidized credit to conservation.

Supreme Court Crisis Fuels Flávio Bolsonaro’s Surge Over Lula in Brazil Presidential Race
An unprecedented institutional crisis in Brazil’s Supreme Court involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes has driven challenger Flávio Bolsonaro into the lead in presidential prediction markets.

STF President Fachin Seizes Control of Moraes-Vorcaro Case Days Before Crucial Vote
Brazilian Supreme Court President Edson Fachin removed a rival justice as rapporteur for a case on Justice Alexandre de Moraes, exposing a profound power struggle.

Brazil Candidates Agree on Fiscal Crisis, But Not the Cure for High Debt and Rates
Brazil’s leading presidential candidates agree that fiscal balance is key to economic stability, but their plans lack the detail needed to lower the country's high sovereign debt.

US Tariffs on Brazilian Wood Fuel Political Firestorm Ahead of Presidential Vote
New 25% US tariffs on a range of Brazilian goods, including wood products, ignite a trade war and trigger a political blame game involving Lula and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.

Brazil Real Decouples from Global Dollar Trend on Shifting Election Trade
The Brazilian Real recently moved against the global strengthening of the US Dollar, driven by a domestic "electoral trade" focused on reduced political risk premium ahead of the presidential vote.

Brazil Banks Warn: Fiscal Plan Essential Post-Election to Avoid 20% Rates
Investment banks warn that Brazil's next president must deliver a strict budget plan to prevent interest rates from soaring to 20% amid rising debt.

Political Risk Skyrockets as Outsider Augusto Cury Enters Statistical Tie with Lula and Bolsonaro
A Datafolha poll showing best-selling author Augusto Cury in a statistical tie with President Lula introduces significant political uncertainty into Brazil's election.

Brazil’s Presidential Candidates Lack Concrete Fiscal Plans to Tame 82% of GDP Debt
The election platforms of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro offer vague solutions to Brazil's surging public debt, raising fears of post-election austerity.

Lula Labels Fiscal Surplus 'Nonsense,' Undermining Brazil's Budget Credibility
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva publicly dismissed fiscal surplus goals, rattling policy certainty and fueling concerns over increased public spending in Brazil.

Brazil’s New 10% Dividend Withholding Tax Ends Three Decades of Tax-Free Payouts for Foreign Investors
Law 15.270/2025 introduced a 10% withholding income tax on dividends paid to non-resident shareholders, fundamentally altering the total return calculus for Brazilian equities starting January 1, 2026.

Bolsonaro Challenger Flávio Under Probe Over Corrupt Banker's Film
Brazil's Supreme Court is investigating presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro for allegedly using R$61 million from a disgraced banker to fund a biopic.

Lula’s R$200 Billion Pre-Election Stimulus Falls Short as Consumer Debt Limits Economic Impact
Economists estimate President Lula's major stimulus package is delivering less than two-thirds of its intended boost to Brazil's economy due to high household indebtedness and bank risk aversion.

New Polls Map Brazil's Deepening Regional Divide Ahead of October Election
Polling shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro dominating the conservative, agribusiness heartland while President Lula holds a narrow national lead, highlighting Brazil's extreme political polarization.

Lula Escalates Fiscal Risk, Dismissing Primary Surplus as 'Nonsense'
Brazilian President Lula da Silva attacked the country's primary fiscal surplus target, calling it "nonsense" and escalating concerns over sovereign risk.

President Lula Backs Term Limits for Brazil Supreme Court Justices Amid Institutional Crisis
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva supports a discussion on fixed terms for Supreme Court justices, a major institutional shift, as the court faces an unprecedented crisis.

Lula Urges Transparency as Unsealed PF Reports Deepen Brazil’s ‘Master Case’ Judicial Scandal
President Lula has called for full disclosure in the 'Master Case,' a spiraling financial investigation that now involves the alleged close relationship between a collapsed bank's owner and a powerful Supreme Court Justice.

Unsealed Banco Master Evidence Escalates Political Probe Targeting Bolsonaro Allies
Supreme Court unseals documents linking disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro and the massive Banco Master fraud to top political allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro, intensifying election-year scrutiny.

Corruption Probe Targets Brazil Presidential Candidate Flávio Bolsonaro Weeks Before Election
Unsealed Supreme Court documents reveal leading opposition candidate Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption and money laundering related to payments from a disgraced banker.

Brazil’s Ferrogrão Rail Project Advances After Removing R$3.5 Billion Public Subsidy
Brazil has revised the economic model for the massive Ferrogrão rail project, eliminating a R$3.5 billion public subsidy to clear administrative hurdles, though viability remains a concern.

Bolsonaro Challenger Names Ex-Guedes Aides, Market Veterans to Economic Team
Flávio Bolsonaro, a leading right-wing presidential challenger, has formalized a pro-market economic team featuring former officials and bankers to court the financial sector.

Brazil Police Report Details Candidate Flávio Bolsonaro’s Direct Contact With Disgraced Banker Daniel Vorcaro
A Federal Police report reveals presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro pressed former Banco Master CEO Daniel Vorcaro for payments to finance the film 'Dark Horse' about his father, Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula Re-election Platform Vows Adherence to Fiscal Rule While Targeting Congressional ‘Pork-Barrel’ Spending
Brazil's President Lula da Silva’s re-election platform promises to maintain the New Fiscal Framework while proposing a reorganization of parliamentary budget amendments.

Brazil’s Mounting Debt Crisis Limits Next President’s Policy Options
High nominal deficit reaching 9.99% of GDP and rigid spending lock in a structural fiscal challenge for Brazil's next administration.

Brazil’s Electoral Court Unanimously Bars Populist Influencer Pablo Marçal From Presidential Race
The Superior Electoral Court unanimously rejected influencer Pablo Marçal's presidential bid, citing a prior ineligibility conviction and a missed party affiliation deadline.

Corruption Probe Against Flávio Bolsonaro Adds Legal Risk to Tight Brazilian Presidential Race
Court documents unsealed weeks before the election reveal presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption and money laundering linked to a disgraced banker.