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26 results for “Risk premium”
Brazil Real Lost Carry Appeal as 2022 Election Risk Premium Outweighed High Selic Rate
A look back at the 2022 election cycle shows how the political risk premium, centered on the race between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, caused major financial institutions to abandon the Brazilian Real's carry trade despite high domestic interest rates.
Tied Brazil Election Polls Drive Risk Premium, Complicating Central Bank’s Rate Cut Cycle
A statistical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro caused Brazil's Real and Bovespa to slide, adding political risk to the economy.
Tight Polls Drive Brazilian Real Volatility as Political Risk Premium Surges
The Brazilian Real and local equities face sustained volatility as presidential election polls tighten, forcing investors to price in a higher political risk premium tied to future fiscal policy.
Statistical Tie in Brazil Presidential Race Brings Back Political Risk Premium to the Real
The Brazilian Real weakened sharply after new polls showed incumbent President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie, reintroducing a political risk premium to the currency.
Brazil Finance Minister Durigan: Supreme Court Crisis ‘Hurts Economy,’ Damages Investor Credibility
Brazil's Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated that the ongoing institutional crisis at the Supreme Federal Court is a source of 'very bad instability' that damages foreign investor confidence and economic predictability.
Brazil Real Decouples from Global Dollar Trend on Shifting Election Trade
The Brazilian Real recently moved against the global strengthening of the US Dollar, driven by a domestic "electoral trade" focused on reduced political risk premium ahead of the presidential vote.
Brazil Supreme Court Institutional Feud Escalates, Threatening Judicial Stability and Risk Premium
A high-profile internal conflict between Justices Alexandre de Moraes and André Mendonça over leaked messages with former banker Daniel Vorcaro is creating an institutional crisis at the STF ahead of a key vote.
Brazil’s Fiscal Reckoning: Post-Election Adjustment Looms as Debt Debate is Deferred
A painful fiscal correction is inevitable for the next Brazilian president, driving up the country's risk premium as the debate is shelved until after the October election.
Broad Legal Coalition Demands STF Reform, Citing Corruption and Undermined Public Trust
A manifesto by OAB-SP and 25 entities calls for judicial reform in Brazil, including term limits for Supreme Court Justices.
Deadlock in Brazil Presidential Race Solidifies Political Risk Premium Weeks Before Vote
A new Quaest poll shows President Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro tied for the runoff, ensuring political uncertainty that hampers Selic rate cuts.
Political Risk Premium Undermines Brazilian Real Carry Trade Ahead of October Election
High-yielding Brazilian Real is struggling to keep pace with its interest rate differential as investors price in fiscal uncertainty before the October election.
Tightening Brazil Election Race Pushes Brazilian Real Stronger Against the Dollar
The Brazilian Real appreciated significantly as the presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro narrows, reducing political risk premium.
Political Risk Premium Drives Record Foreign Capital Outflow from Brazil’s Stock Market
Foreign investors pulled billions from the B3 ahead of the October 2026 election, raising Brazil's political risk premium.
Election Risk Trumps Yield: Global Funds Unwind Favored Brazilian Real Carry Trade
Institutional investors are moving away from the Brazilian Real after major banks downgraded assets, pricing in a high 'electoral risk premium' over fiscal uncertainty.
Lula Administration Deploys Alckmin and Durigan to Vow Fiscal Rigor, Combat Brazil Country Risk Premium
Brazil's top economic officials pledged commitment to sustainable surpluses to reduce the country's high sovereign risk and domestic interest rates.
Political Uncertainty and Fiscal Fears Drive Brazilian Real to R$5.22, Outpacing Emerging Market Peers
The Brazilian Real's recent slide against the dollar is driven by a growing political risk premium ahead of the 2026 election and fiscal uncertainty.
Brazil’s Real Hits Four-Month Low as Political Uncertainty Fuels Fiscal Risk Premium
The Brazilian Real has fallen to R$5.223 against the U.S. dollar, its weakest level in four months, driven by fiscal and political uncertainty ahead of the general election.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Hits Brazilian Real as US Revokes Ambassador’s Visa
The Brazilian Real faced a sharp climb in volatility after US-Brazil diplomatic tensions escalated, driven by a visa revocation.
USD/BRL Spikes to R$5.13 on Diplomatic Row as US Sanctions Fear Ramps Up Political Risk
The Brazilian real sharply depreciated, hitting R$5.13 this week as a US-Brazil diplomatic row introduced a severe geopolitical risk premium.
Dry Spell in Key Brazilian Soy Belt Threatens Planting Start, Maintaining Supply Risk Premium on CBOT Futures
Zero rain in major central/northern soy regions over seven days is delaying soil moisture recharge, threatening the 2026/27 planting.
Dry Spell in Key Brazilian States Raises Soybean Crop Risk Ahead of Planting Season
Seven-day drought in MT, GO, and BA soybean regions adds weather risk premium to global supply outlook.
Political Uncertainty and U.S. Trade Tensions Put Risk Premium on USD/BRL, IBOV
Lula's poll lead and new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods increase market risk, driving political uncertainty into the USD/BRL exchange rate.
Tight Lula-Bolsonaro 2026 Polls Cement Brazil's Prolonged Political Risk Premium
New July polls show President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for the 2026 race, sustaining high political uncertainty.
US 25% Tariff Sustains Brazilian Real Weakness as Trade War Risk Caps Carry Trade Appeal
The new 25% US tariff on Brazilian imports has stalled BRL appreciation, introducing a trade war risk premium at a critical time.
Brazilian Real Breaks Below 5.15 Barrier on Commodity Rally
The Brazilian real strengthened against the US dollar to close at R$ 5.1320 on July 6, 2026, driven by falling risk premiums and strong commodity demand.
Fiscal Deficit and Rising Debt Costs Limit Brazil Real Recovery
Brazil's widening fiscal deficit and soaring nominal interest payments are keeping risk premiums high, capping recovery potential for the BRL.