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Deadlock in Brazil Presidential Race Solidifies Political Risk Premium Weeks Before Vote

Deadlock in Brazil Presidential Race Solidifies Political Risk Premium Weeks Before Vote

D
Diane Cole
Sep 7, 2026, 11:26 PM
Deadlock in Brazil Presidential Race Solidifies Political Risk Premium Weeks Before Vote
Illustration — BRZ.news

The race for the Brazilian presidency remains locked in a statistical tie just weeks before the October general election, a result that ensures political uncertainty will continue to pressure the country’s economy and its benchmark interest rate. A new Quaest poll released this week shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Senator Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked in a simulated second-round runoff, with both candidates earning 41% of the vote. The result suggests the contest will go to a highly polarized second round, as neither candidate is currently projected to secure the more than 50% needed for a first-round victory.

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