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Political Risk Premium Undermines Brazilian Real Carry Trade Ahead of October Election

Political Risk Premium Undermines Brazilian Real Carry Trade Ahead of October Election

S
Sofia Marin
Sep 7, 2026, 1:19 PM
Political Risk Premium Undermines Brazilian Real Carry Trade Ahead of October Election
Source: wikimedia

The once-celebrated carry trade in the **Brazilian Real** is rapidly losing steam as political uncertainty ahead of the **October election** forces investors to price in a substantial **political risk** premium, signaling that market fear is now overwhelming the currency’s massive interest rate advantage. Despite having one of the highest central bank interest rates globally, the Real has struggled for appreciation against the U.S. Dollar. On Monday, the USD/BRL pair was trading at 5.1247, up 0.04%, reflecting the tension. This sluggish performance is the clearest sign that market participants are demanding extra compensation to hold the currency, a demand that erodes the profitability of the carry trade strategy.

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