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12 results for “political risk premium”
Brazil Real Lost Carry Appeal as 2022 Election Risk Premium Outweighed High Selic Rate
A look back at the 2022 election cycle shows how the political risk premium, centered on the race between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, caused major financial institutions to abandon the Brazilian Real's carry trade despite high domestic interest rates.
Tight Polls Drive Brazilian Real Volatility as Political Risk Premium Surges
The Brazilian Real and local equities face sustained volatility as presidential election polls tighten, forcing investors to price in a higher political risk premium tied to future fiscal policy.
Statistical Tie in Brazil Presidential Race Brings Back Political Risk Premium to the Real
The Brazilian Real weakened sharply after new polls showed incumbent President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie, reintroducing a political risk premium to the currency.
Brazil Real Decouples from Global Dollar Trend on Shifting Election Trade
The Brazilian Real recently moved against the global strengthening of the US Dollar, driven by a domestic "electoral trade" focused on reduced political risk premium ahead of the presidential vote.
Deadlock in Brazil Presidential Race Solidifies Political Risk Premium Weeks Before Vote
A new Quaest poll shows President Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro tied for the runoff, ensuring political uncertainty that hampers Selic rate cuts.
Political Risk Premium Undermines Brazilian Real Carry Trade Ahead of October Election
High-yielding Brazilian Real is struggling to keep pace with its interest rate differential as investors price in fiscal uncertainty before the October election.
Tightening Brazil Election Race Pushes Brazilian Real Stronger Against the Dollar
The Brazilian Real appreciated significantly as the presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro narrows, reducing political risk premium.
Political Risk Premium Drives Record Foreign Capital Outflow from Brazil’s Stock Market
Foreign investors pulled billions from the B3 ahead of the October 2026 election, raising Brazil's political risk premium.
Political Uncertainty and Fiscal Fears Drive Brazilian Real to R$5.22, Outpacing Emerging Market Peers
The Brazilian Real's recent slide against the dollar is driven by a growing political risk premium ahead of the 2026 election and fiscal uncertainty.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Hits Brazilian Real as US Revokes Ambassador’s Visa
The Brazilian Real faced a sharp climb in volatility after US-Brazil diplomatic tensions escalated, driven by a visa revocation.
USD/BRL Spikes to R$5.13 on Diplomatic Row as US Sanctions Fear Ramps Up Political Risk
The Brazilian real sharply depreciated, hitting R$5.13 this week as a US-Brazil diplomatic row introduced a severe geopolitical risk premium.
Tight Lula-Bolsonaro 2026 Polls Cement Brazil's Prolonged Political Risk Premium
New July polls show President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for the 2026 race, sustaining high political uncertainty.