Eduardo Paes Leads Rio de Janeiro Governor Race but Faces Runoff

The race for the governorship of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’s second-most populous state, is heading toward a tense finish. A final Quaest poll released on October 3, 2026, shows centrist candidate Eduardo Paes leading the gubernatorial race with 49% of valid votes. However, because a candidate must secure more than 50% of valid votes to win outright in the first round, Paes remains just short of avoiding a second-round runoff against his conservative rival, Douglas Ruas.

Ruas, representing the right-wing Liberal Party (PL), stands at 40% of valid votes in the poll, positioning him as a formidable challenger. Former Governor Anthony Garotinho of the Republicanos party follows in third place with 6%. Under Brazilian electoral rules, if no candidate crosses the 50% threshold in the first round of voting on October 4, the top two candidates must face each other in a head-to-head runoff on October 25.

The gubernatorial race in Rio de Janeiro is a crucial battleground between Brazil's moderate centrist forces and the conservative movement led nationally by the PL. Eduardo Paes, a well-known political figure who previously served as the mayor of the city of Rio de Janeiro, has built his campaign on administrative experience and moderate appeal. In contrast, Douglas Ruas, a state deputy and former president of the Rio de Janeiro State Legislative Assembly (Alerj), has run a campaign heavily aligned with conservative values, leveraging strong local party machinery to close the gap in recent weeks.

The outcome of this race carries significant weight for the state's governance and its relationship with the federal government. Rio de Janeiro faces persistent challenges regarding public safety, fiscal stability, and infrastructure. A potential second-round runoff would prolong an intense political campaign, forcing both candidates to appeal to centrist voters and negotiate alliances with eliminated candidates to secure a majority.