Bolsonaro party rejects Supreme Court truce, targets Moraes impeachment

BRASÍLIA — Brazil’s right-wing opposition has rejected backchannel peace offerings from elements within the Supreme Court, signaling a major institutional showdown. The Liberal Party (PL), led by the family of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has declared that the impeachment of Justice Alexandre de Moraes is "non-negotiable" and plans to aggressively pursue his removal in the Senate starting in 2027.

The political calculus shifted dramatically following strong down-ballot results in the national elections. The PL is on track to hold the largest bench in the 81-seat Senate with 28 seats. Alongside right-wing allies in the Progressistas (PP), Republicanos, and Novo, a conservative coalition will control at least 43 seats. This majority gives the bloc the leverage to elect the next Senate President, who holds the sole constitutional authority to initiate impeachment proceedings against Supreme Court justices.

According to reporting by CNN Brasil, emissaries aligned with the Supreme Court (STF) recently reached out to the campaign of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president's eldest son. The proposed political truce, or acordão, reportedly suggested that the court could review the legal restrictions and potential jail time facing Jair Bolsonaro, while also upholding a legislative amnesty for those convicted in the January 8, 2023, riots in Brasília. In exchange, the right-wing opposition would drop its plans to target sitting justices.

PL leadership flatly rejected the overtures. Party strategists estimate they already command 49 secure votes in the Senate to impeach Moraes—just five votes short of the 54-vote supermajority required to convict and remove a justice. The party is also keeping Justice Flávio Dino, a prominent progressive voice on the bench, in its crosshairs depending on his future rulings.

This aggressive stance sets up a high-stakes constitutional battle. In Brazil, the Supreme Court has wielded immense power over the last several years, with Moraes leading controversial, fast-tracked investigations into "fake news," democratic threats, and the actions of the Bolsonaro family. While supporters view these measures as necessary to protect Brazilian democracy, the right-wing opposition decries them as judicial overreach and political persecution.

The immediate battleground will be the February 2027 election for the presidency of the Senate. If the conservative coalition successfully installs an ally to lead the upper house, the long-staved-off impeachment petitions against Moraes are highly likely to be put to a vote, plunging Brazil's executive, legislative, and judicial branches into uncharted territory.