Search
196 results for “Selic Rate”
Brazil Finance Ministry Cuts 2026 GDP Forecast to 2.0% on Drag From High Selic Rate
Brazil's Ministry of Finance revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast downward, citing the restrictive effects of the high benchmark Selic interest rate on key sectors.
Brazil’s Fixed Income Market Nears R$10 Trillion Milestone Amid B3 Volume Surge
The total value of fixed income investments registered on the B3 exchange reached R$9.994 trillion in August, underscoring the rapid growth and financial deepening of Brazil’s capital markets.
Brazil’s Central Bank Constrained by Fiscal Framework Uncertainty
Brazil’s top economic officials stress the stability of the new fiscal rule is essential to allow for lower interest rates, as the Central Bank keeps rates high.
Brazil Central Bank Signals Extended High-Interest Period Despite Fifth Consecutive Rate Cut
Brazil’s central bank cut its benchmark Selic rate to 13.75% but stressed the need to remain 'adequately restrictive' due to high inflation risks.
Brazil Real Lost Carry Appeal as 2022 Election Risk Premium Outweighed High Selic Rate
A look back at the 2022 election cycle shows how the political risk premium, centered on the race between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, caused major financial institutions to abandon the Brazilian Real's carry trade despite high domestic interest rates.
Brazil’s High Selic Rate Drives Institutional Interest in Fixed-Rate ETFs for Capital Gains
Major Brazilian institutions are pointing clients to fixed-rate bond ETFs, a play on falling interest rate expectations.
Brazil’s Rate Squeeze: Selic Cut to 13.75% Against Fed Hike Narrows Gap Ahead of Election Risk
The Brazilian Real faces instability as the Central Bank cuts rates to 13.75% while the US Federal Reserve hikes, tightening the interest rate differential.
Brazil Focus Report Lifts 2026 Inflation Projection Again Amid Election Uncertainty
Economists raised Brazil's 2026 inflation forecast to 4.92%, signaling anxiety over fiscal policy ahead of the presidential election.
Presidential Candidate Caiado Proposes Hard-Line Fiscal Cap, Targets Congressional Amendments to Lower Brazil Interest Rates
Ronaldo Caiado, a leading Brazil presidential candidate, announced a sweeping fiscal cap proposal to restore credibility and cut the Selic rate.
Presidential Candidate Caiado Targets Congressional Power, Proposes Zeroing Mandatory Spending for Selic Rate Cut
Brazilian presidential hopeful Ronaldo Caiado is proposing radical fiscal austerity, including eliminating mandatory congressional spending amendments, to drive Brazil's Selic rate down to 7%.
Tied Brazil Election Polls Drive Risk Premium, Complicating Central Bank’s Rate Cut Cycle
A statistical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro caused Brazil's Real and Bovespa to slide, adding political risk to the economy.
Brazil's Sovereign Risk Hits Lowest Level Since Pre-Pandemic Era
The cost of insuring Brazil’s sovereign debt has fallen to 110.62 basis points, the lowest level since February 2020, signaling greater foreign investor confidence.
Morgan Stanley Warns Brazil's Post-Election Fiscal Confidence May Underprice Real Risk
Analysts at Morgan Stanley caution that market confidence in a limited fiscal adjustment after the October 2026 election is dangerously high, warning a lack of a credible spending plan could trigger a severe crisis for the Brazilian Real and interest rates.
PagSeguro Stock Drops 3.14% as Brazil’s High-Rate Environment Continues to Pressure Fintech Sector
Shares of the Brazilian digital payments firm PagSeguro fell Friday, a move tied to investor caution over high funding costs.
Lula’s R$200 Billion Stimulus Falls Short, Escalating Clash with Brazil Central Bank
An election-year economic stimulus package by President Lula’s government had a lower-than-expected impact, while parallel off-budget spending pressures the Central Bank to hold the Selic rate high.
Brazil’s Election-Driven Spending, Supreme Court Crisis Converge with Economic Slowdown
President Lula’s pre-election welfare boost heightens Brazil fiscal risk as the economy cools and a Supreme Court crisis widens political instability.
Brazil’s Economic Activity Stalls as Agribusiness Slumps, Fueling Case for Selic Rate Cuts
The Central Bank of Brazil’s pre-GDP indicator (IBC-Br) fell 0.2% in July, exceeding forecasts, as a steep 1.2% decline in Agribusiness weighed heavily on the economy.
Tight Lula-Bolsonaro 2026 Race Triggers Renewed Policy Risk Sell-off in Brazilian Assets
Brazilian assets weakened this week as new polls for the 2026 presidential election showed a statistical tie between President Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.
Brazil’s Central Bank Rate Cut Spurs Rotation Toward Domestic-Facing Stocks
The fifth consecutive cut to Brazil’s benchmark Selic interest rate, now at 13.75%, is driving a rotation of capital out of fixed income and into equity sectors sensitive to lower credit costs, such as retail and civil construction.
Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Selic Rate to 13.75%, Boosting Retail and Construction Prospects
Brazil’s central bank, Copom, cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 13.75% per annum, a move expected to stimulate the highly rate-sensitive retail and civil construction sectors.
Brazil’s 13.75% Selic Rate Holds Down Consumer Credit, Caps Savings Returns
The high Selic interest rate keeps borrowing costs high for Brazilian consumers while structurally capping returns for the nation's most popular savings account.
Dual Central Bank Decisions Place Brazilian Real’s High-Yield Carry Trade Under Immediate Threat
The Brazilian Real's appeal to foreign investors is set for a pivotal test as the BCB's Copom and the US Federal Reserve are both expected to announce decisions that will narrow the critical interest rate differential on September 16, 2026.
Brazil Central Bank Poised for Final Selic Cut as Political Tensions Complicate Real’s Outlook
Copom is expected to cut the Selic rate to 13.75% as inflation slows, but a tightening election race against a fiscally conservative candidate is strengthening the Brazilian Real.
Brazil’s Small-Cap Discount Nears Record High as High Rates and Political Risk Bite
The valuation gap between Brazilian small-cap and large-cap stocks is near a historical high, reflecting severe investor aversion to local political and interest-rate uncertainty.
Brazil’s Central Bank Set for Selic Cut, but Caution on Inflation Clouds Long-Term Bond Outlook
Brazil’s Central Bank is expected to cut the benchmark Selic interest rate to 13.75%, but its forward guidance will be scrutinized for signals on future cuts given long-term inflation concerns.
Brazil’s Real Estate Funds Hit 3.3 Million Investors on B3 Despite High Interest Rates
Brazilian Real Estate Investment Funds (FIIs) reached a record 3.3 million investors in July 2026, driven by retail demand for income and foreign capital flows, defying the country's high Selic rate environment.
Global Squeeze: 5% US Treasury Yields Constrain Brazil’s Central Bank and Pressure the Real
The rise in the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield above 5% is raising borrowing costs for Brazil and complicating the Central Bank's path for cutting the Selic rate.
Statistical Tie in Brazil Presidential Race Brings Back Political Risk Premium to the Real
The Brazilian Real weakened sharply after new polls showed incumbent President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie, reintroducing a political risk premium to the currency.
Local Optimism Drives Brazil Small Cap Rally, Colliding with Institutional Caution on High Rates
Brazilian investors are powering a small-cap stock rally on election-fueled optimism for lower interest rates, creating a divergence with foreign institutional caution over the sustained high Selic rate.
Brazil’s Finance Minister Ties 2027 Rate Cuts Directly to Fiscal Discipline
Finance Minister Dario Durigan committed the government to a primary surplus in 2027, arguing the fiscal effort is essential for lower interest rates.