$10,000 in Petrobras a year ago is $20,300 today. In the S&P 500: $11,700
$10,000 in Petrobras's NYSE shares a year ago is about $20,300 today; the same in the S&P 500, about $11,700. Behind the gap: two central banks moving in opposite directions, and the risks that come with a 13.75% policy rate.
A $10,000 stake in Petrobras's New York-listed shares bought at the October 3, 2025 close, with dividends reinvested, was worth about $20,300 at Monday's close, October 5, 2026. The same $10,000 in the S&P 500 (SPY) became about $11,700; in Brazil's ETF (EWZ), about $14,800; in Itaú (ITUB), about $15,400 (Yahoo Finance, adjusted closes). Past performance is not a forecast, and the gap has a mechanism behind it.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the first increase since 2023, and the median projection of its members pointed to one more hike before the end of the year. In September, the Central Bank of Brazil's Copom cut the Selic rate by a quarter point to 13.75%, its fourth consecutive cut. Two central banks, opposite directions, about ten percentage points apart.
Why it matters to a US brokerage account. A 13.75% policy rate sets what Brazilian banks earn on reais, and what their shares listed in New York pay out. Dividends are born in reais: when the real falls against the dollar, the dollar check shrinks; when it rises, it grows. On Monday, October 5, the day after Brazil's first-round vote, the real gained 4.55% against the dollar (PTAX 4.9859, Central Bank of Brazil).
Fact vs. noise. The noise is that Brazil is a market for day-traders. The fact, in twelve months in dollars to the October 5 close: Petrobras (PBR) +103%, Itaú (ITUB) +54%, Bradesco (BBD) +43%, against +17.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). In the same terms, $5,000 in Petrobras became about $10,150. Dispersion is the other fact: in the same twelve months Nu (NU) is down 0.8% and StoneCo (STNE) 22% (Yahoo Finance, adjusted closes). Past performance is not a forecast.
In your brokerage app. Itaú, Bradesco and Petrobras trade on the New York Stock Exchange as American depositary receipts, in dollars, in the same account as any US stock. The risks come with them: currency, politics, and, at Petrobras, state control, in an election year with a runoff on October 25.
What is next: the Fed decides on October 28; the Copom on November 4. Two decisions, one week apart, on opposite sides of a ten-point gap.
Sources: Federal Reserve (FOMC statement and projections, September 16, 2026), Central Bank of Brazil (Copom decision; PTAX), Yahoo Finance (adjusted closes), Nasdaq. Informational content. Not investment advice.