The outlook for Brazil’s beef industry has materially darkened, with new trade barriers from the European Union and China forcing an expected cut in national production for 2026, placing pressure on the margins of major meatpackers like JBS and Marfrig Global Foods (MRFG3). Brazilian beef production is projected to drop to approximately 40 million head in 2026, a decline from 42 million in 2025, according to the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (Abiec). This expected contraction comes as the industry is hit by a one-two punch of protectionist measures in its two largest high-value markets, causing a sector-wide alert for investors in Brazilian agribusiness.