Former Military Chiefs Detail Bolsonaro’s Coup Plot, Confirm Brazil Faced Imminent Rupture After 2022 Election

The commander who led Brazil’s Air Force during the end of Jair Bolsonaro’s term is set to publish a book detailing his efforts to create an “anti-coup trench” within the armed forces, confirming that the country faced an imminent risk of institutional rupture after the 2022 election. Lieutenant-Brigadier Carlos Baptista Júnior’s account adds significant weight to previous revelations from Federal Police testimony, which confirmed the former president personally presented a draft coup decree to the heads of the Army and Air Force in a bid to remain in power.

The most concrete evidence comes from the deposition of former Army Commander General Freire Gomes, who told Federal Police investigators that Bolsonaro and his ministers presented a document in December 2022 at the presidential residence, the Palácio do Alvorada. This draft decree proposed measures to overturn the election results, including declaring a state of defense and creating an electoral regulatory commission. General Freire Gomes and Lieutenant-Brigadier Baptista Júnior both testified that they immediately rejected the plan, with Freire Gomes stating he advised the former president that the Armed Forces would not support the move and that he would face legal consequences.

The coordinated refusal by the heads of the Army and Air Force was central to preventing the Brazil coup plot from moving forward. In his upcoming book, I Said No! - An Anti-Coup Bulwark, Baptista Júnior describes how he worked to isolate military officers who were open to the idea of a rupture, confirming the intense pressure exerted by Jair Bolsonaro and his allies on the military's top brass in the weeks following his loss to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 2022 election. The revelations from both commanders underscore the critical role played by the top echelons of the Brazilian military in upholding the country’s democratic order against internal pressure.

The accounts by Freire Gomes and Baptista Júnior stand in contrast to the alleged actions of the former Navy Commander, Admiral Almir Garnier, who reportedly made himself available to the former president and was later implicated in the broader investigation into the attempted power grab. For a foreign audience, the testimony provides a clear basis for assessing the high level of political risk that gripped Brazil during the post-election transition, illustrating that the threat to institutional stability was not merely rhetorical but involved concrete, documented steps toward an unconstitutional power transfer. The revelations are part of a larger ongoing investigation and subsequent legal proceedings in Brazil’s Supreme Court.

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What it touches

The confirmation from the former commanders regarding a high-level plot and the institutional resistance that contained it directly impacts the perceived risk associated with Brazilian assets. Periods of political instability and a threat to democratic institutions are fundamental factors in calculating BRL Sovereign Risk. While the plot failed, the evidence of an attempt serves as a reminder of political volatility, a factor investors price into the cost of holding Brazilian government bonds and the overall country risk premium.