Final Major Poll Released Before Brazil’s Presidential Campaign Advertising Begins

The final major opinion poll before the official campaign advertising period for the October 2026 Brazilian Presidential election was released Friday, providing the last clear snapshot of the race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The latest survey by Quaest, commissioned by Genial Investimentos and Grupo Globo, measured voter sentiment in a critical period just ahead of the start of the horário eleitoral gratuito, the mandatory free time on radio and television that officially kicks off the election sprint on Sunday, August 16.

The new Quaest poll, based on interviews conducted between August 10 and 13, is being scrutinized to see if the slight momentum gained by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has continued or stalled. The previous Quaest survey, released on August 5, showed President Lula leading the second-round simulation with 44% of the vote against 39% for Senator Bolsonaro. The five-point gap was within the poll’s two-point margin of error, suggesting a technically tied race heading into the final, high-exposure phase of the campaign.

The 2026 election is a high-stakes rematch of sorts. President Lula, of the leftist Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking a fourth term, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of the former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running—has taken up the mantle of the conservative opposition. This final pre-campaign poll tested not just first- and second-round scenarios between the two main candidates, but also key factors like candidate rejection rates and public perception of the economy and soaring food prices, which have been a point of vulnerability for the incumbent administration.

The importance of this release extends beyond the raw numbers because the electoral landscape is about to fundamentally change. The start of the free televised and radio advertising grants candidates—and, crucially, their alliances with other parties—significant airtime, which can be particularly impactful in a country where television remains the dominant source of political information. The results of this Quaest survey will guide how the two campaigns deploy their ad time and resources, particularly in states where the race is closest, such as the crucial electoral battleground of São Paulo. The polling data acts as the final strategic map for the candidates before the true final phase of the campaign begins.

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What it touches

Political uncertainty remains a key driver for market volatility in Brazil. The closeness of the race, confirmed by the latest polling data, contributes to ongoing market caution, particularly for local assets. The result of the presidential election, which will determine the government’s fiscal and economic direction, continues to be a major factor weighing on the Ibovespa stock index (IBOV).