Brazil Supreme Court eyes 'Dosimetry Law' to ease Bolsonaro penalty

BRASÍLIA — Justices on the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil's highest judicial body, are increasingly viewing a recently enacted sentencing law as a viable political compromise to reduce the prison term of former President Jair Bolsonaro. According to STF sources, the court is considering reviewing the "Dosimetry Law" (Lei da Dosimetria) as an alternative to a full criminal review of Bolsonaro’s conviction, a move that could ease intense national political polarization without fully overturning his coup-attempt conviction.

The legal mechanism in question stems from legislation passed by Congress over the veto of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The law alters the Penal Code to establish more lenient guidelines for sentencing and regime progression in crimes against the democratic state. If the Supreme Court upholds the constitutionality of the law, Bolsonaro's sentence of 27 years and three months—handed down for his role in a 2022 coup plot—could be slashed to 19 years and seven months.

Such a reduction would dramatically alter the former leader's detention terms. Currently serving his sentence under house arrest due to health issues, Bolsonaro would become eligible to transition to a semi-open prison regime after serving just over three years, rather than the seven years required under his original sentence.

A Strategic Judicial Compromise

For the Supreme Court, which has faced significant backlash from conservative lawmakers and Bolsonaro's supporters, the Dosimetry Law offers a middle ground. A full criminal review aimed at completely annulling Bolsonaro's conviction is highly controversial and lacks broad support among the 11 justices. Conversely, applying the Congressionally approved sentencing guidelines allows the court to lower his penalty under a framework established by the legislature itself, shifting some of the political responsibility away from the judiciary.

The timing of the decision is highly strategic. Justice Nunes Marques, who is overseeing Bolsonaro's criminal review requests, has signaled to peers that the court should only rule on these sensitive matters after the conclusion of the municipal run-off elections in late October 2026 to avoid directly interfering in the electoral process.

Furthermore, Brazil's Prosecutor General, Paulo Gonet, has already indicated he may support the constitutionality of the Dosimetry Law. While Justice Alexandre de Moraes temporarily suspended the law's application in May 2026 pending a full bench review, court insiders believe a majority is forming to validate the law with minor adjustments. This would pave the way for a structured reduction of sentences for both Bolsonaro and hundreds of rioters convicted in connection with the January 8, 2023, attacks on government buildings in Brasília.