Brazil's Senate vote may matter more than the presidential race: Bolsonaro's PL won 19 of 54 seats
Voters filled 54 of the Senate's 81 seats on Sunday. Only the Senate can try Supreme Court justices, and the parties that gained ground are the ones that have pushed for it. What the numbers say, and what they do not.
Brazil's presidential race heads to an October 25 runoff between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). But a contest that could reshape the balance of power between Congress and the courts was decided on Sunday: voters filled 54 of the Senate's 81 seats.
By BRZ News' count of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results feed across all 27 states, the PL won 19 of the 54 seats, the most of any party. MDB won 7, PT 6, NOVO, PP, PSB and União 3 each, Podemos, PSD, PSDB and Republicanos 2 each, and PDT and Rede 1 each. All 27 states had been officially totalized by Monday morning.
Why the Senate matters here. Under article 52 of the Constitution, only the Senate can try Supreme Court (STF) justices for impeachable offenses, and removal takes two thirds of the chamber, 54 votes. Since a December 2025 injunction by Justice Gilmar Mendes (ADPFs 1259 and 1260), pending a vote of the full court, the same two-thirds threshold applies just to open a case.
Where the count lands. Grouping PL, NOVO, PP, Republicanos and União, parties whose senators have pushed for impeachment proceedings against justices, BRZ News counts 30 of the 54 seats elected on Sunday, which would give that grouping about 48 of 81 seats from February 2027. That is short of 54. It is our grouping by party, not a formal caucus, and it does not guarantee a single vote. The projection can shift with the October 25 gubernatorial runoffs (senators who win governorships are replaced by their alternates), party switches before the new Senate is seated, and a pending electoral-court case over one senator-elect.
BRZ read. We see a signal from voters for a more right-leaning Senate with more leverage over the Supreme Court. That is our interpretation, not a fact.
What is next: the presidential runoff on October 25, and the new Congress taking office on February 1, 2027.
Sources: TSE (official results feed, all 27 states, checked October 5, 2026), Federal Constitution (articles 52 and 57), Law 1,079/1950, STF (ADPFs 1259 and 1260), Agência Senado. Informational content. Not investment advice.