Brazil Faces New Poultry Rival as China Ramps Up Exports

Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of poultry, is facing a shifting landscape in global food trade. China, historically one of the primary buyers of Brazilian chicken, is rapidly scaling up its domestic production and emerging as a formidable export competitor. According to an analysis by Rabobank, the specialized agricultural lender, China’s domestic poultry production grew by more than 9% in the first half of 2026, building on a robust 7% expansion in 2025. This surge in supply has allowed Beijing to transition into a net exporter of chicken, fundamentally altering its trade relationship with South America's agricultural powerhouse.

The transition has been swift. Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that China exported 546,000 tons of chicken between January and May 2026—a 51% year-on-year increase. Having established itself as a net exporter since 2025, China is now leveraging its surplus of domestic cuts, particularly chicken breasts, to target price-sensitive markets. Industry analysts warn that while Brazil currently dominates global poultry shipping, Chinese exports will increasingly challenge Brazilian market share across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa over the next decade.

Despite this rapid expansion, China has not stopped buying Brazilian poultry altogether. From January to September 2026, China purchased approximately 420,400 tons of Brazilian chicken, valued at $1.15 billion, according to trade data. This ongoing trade is sustained by structural differences in consumer preferences. While Chinese consumers highly value chicken paws and wings—paying premium prices of up to $3,000 per ton—they have a lower demand for breast meat. Consequently, China imports specialized cuts from Brazil while exporting its domestic breast meat surplus to third countries.

However, the long-term trend points toward a more self-sufficient China. The Chinese government has actively promoted poultry farming to reduce its reliance on imported pork and to optimize feed efficiency, as chickens require less soy and corn feed per pound of protein than pigs. This policy shift directly impacts Brazil's agricultural lobby, which has long relied on China's massive consumer base to sustain record-breaking export revenues.

What it touches

This structural shift directly affects Brazil's major publicly traded meatpackers, notably JBS (NYSE: JBS) and BRF (B3: BRFS3), which are heavily exposed to global poultry supply chains. While these companies benefit from diversified global operations, a long-term increase in Chinese competition in third-party markets like the Middle East could pressure international poultry margins and force Brazilian exporters to seek out new, higher-value trade agreements.