$10,000 in Brazil's ETF a year ago is $14,800 today. Sunday's election added 12.6% in one day

$10,000 in EWZ, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF traded on NYSE Arca, bought at the October 3, 2025 close with dividends reinvested, was worth about $14,800 at Monday's close; the same $10,000 in the S&P 500 (SPY), about $11,700 (Yahoo Finance, adjusted closes). Monday alone added 12.57%, the fund's biggest day since March 2020. The trigger was an election.

125.3 million Brazilians voted on Sunday, October 4. The new lower house, seated in February 2027, will have the Liberal Party (PL) as its largest bloc with 121 of 513 seats, followed by the Workers' Party (PT) with 70, União with 46 and PSD with 43, according to the count published by the Chamber of Deputies from Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results. In the Senate, the PL won 19 of the 54 seats up for election, the most of any party. The presidential runoff between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is on October 25.

Markets reacted the next morning. EWZ, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF traded on NYSE Arca, closed Monday at $42.99, up 12.57% from Friday's $38.19, its biggest one-day gain since March 17, 2020, according to Nasdaq. The central bank's reference dollar rate (PTAX) settled at 4.9859 reais, 4.55% below Friday. The Ibovespa, São Paulo's benchmark index, closed at a record. Among Brazilian companies listed in the United States, Bradesco (BBD) closed up 18.5%, Itaú (ITUB) 15.4%, Nu (NU) 13.2%, Petrobras (PBR) 11.6% and Vale (VALE) 3.0%.

Fact vs. noise. The noise is that Brazilian political headlines mean instability for the money. The fact is in the daily closes: this fund has moved after every first round since 2014. The trading day after the vote, EWZ rose 6.1% in 2014, 6.7% in 2018, 9.9% in 2022 and 12.6% in 2026, while the S&P 500 moved between −0.1% and +2.6% on the same days. After the runoffs it went both ways: −5.4% in 2014, −3.5% in 2018, +3.9% in 2022 (BRZ News count of daily closes, Yahoo Finance). One day is not a trend; an election day is, consistently, a big day. Past performance is not a forecast.

Who is buying. Foreign investors put a net R$9.1 billion into B3, Brazil's exchange, in September, after a third quarter in which they withdrew R$6.45 billion excluding public offerings, according to B3 data. Monday's flow is published with a two-day lag.

What it touches. Three companies, Vale, Nu and Itaú, make up 28.39% of EWZ, according to the fund's fact sheet (iShares, June 30, 2026). A move in the fund is largely a move in a few banks, a miner and an oil company, and the dollar price of each depends on the real.

What is next: the runoff on October 25, the gubernatorial runoffs the same day, and the trading day after.

Sources: TSE (official results, all 27 states), Chamber of Deputies, Nasdaq, Yahoo Finance, Central Bank of Brazil (PTAX), B3, iShares. Informational content. Not investment advice.