Included with BRZ PRO · Available now
Every trading day, BRZ.PREDICTION's model estimates the likely price range 20 sessions out for EWZ, EWZS, NU, PBR, VALE, ITUB and the dollar, shows how often past ranges held, and adds the chance of a higher, flat or lower close with the model's own track record.
See BRZ PRO plansProbabilities come from a statistical model of past prices and are shown with the model's own track record. Included with BRZ PRO.
Brazil economic questions · updated daily
The same questions that trade on prediction markets: rates, inflation, the real and growth. Each answer shows the BRZ.PREDICTION model or official Banco Central data, with the source and date.
BANCO CENTRAL · COPOM
Selic target now: 13.75% (Banco Central, series 432).
Economists expect 13.75% at the end of 2026 (Focus survey median of 144 respondents, 2026-11-06; range 13.25% to 14.00%).
Next meeting: see the Copom calendar ↗.
Where this question trades: Kalshi ↗ · Polymarket US ↗
BRZ reporting on this →THE REAL · USD/BRL
Likely range for the close 20 sessions after 2026-11-11: 5.2101 to 5.9346 (last PTAX 5.5606).
In 24 past tests, the close landed inside a range built this way 63% of the time. The range does not say which way the price will go.
Direction, from the same model: higher 36% · about the same 33% · lower 31%. Its most likely outcome happened 46% of the time in 24 past tests, the same ballpark as always picking the most common outcome (50%).
Economists expect 5.35 at the end of 2026 (Focus survey median, 122 respondents, 2026-11-06).
Where this question trades: Kalshi ↗
BRZ reporting on this →INFLATION · IPCA
Economists expect 5.22% for 2026 (Focus survey median of 146 respondents, 2026-11-06; range 4.91% to 5.92%).
Release dates: IBGE calendar ↗.
Where this question trades: Kalshi ↗
BRZ reporting on this →GROWTH · GDP
Quarterly GDP comes from IBGE. BRZ reporting covers each release and what it means for U.S.-listed Brazil stocks and EWZ.
Release dates: IBGE calendar ↗.
Where this question trades: Kalshi ↗
BRZ reporting on this →STOCK QUESTION · NU
Our free study sets out what NU trades at against Itaú, Inter&Co and SoFi, the key dates and what to watch in the results.
BRZ PRO
The same daily range for EWZ, EWZS, NU, PBR, VALE and ITUB, each with how often past ranges held, plus the news on each stock, the dividend calendar and weekly research.
What you can do
Where the price is likely to close in 20 sessions, for the U.S.-listed names you can hold at your broker: EWZ, EWZS, NU, PBR, VALE and ITUB, plus the dollar against the real.
Each reading shows how often past ranges held, and, for the higher, flat or lower probabilities, how the model compares with simply picking the most common outcome.
Scenario reports set out the catalyst and the evidence on each side. When a public Kalshi or Polymarket market on a Brazil question is open, the report links to its question and rules.
For U.S. investors
U.S. tax treatment depends on your account, investment structure and circumstances. BRZ offers general educational coverage, not personal tax advice. Our guide explains general U.S. tax questions by investment route and links to official IRS sources.
Frequently asked
EWZ, EWZS, NU, PBR, VALE and ITUB, the U.S.-listed Brazil names you can hold at a U.S. broker, plus the dollar against the real. It is live in BRZ PRO today.
The model's probability that the price closes higher, about the same or lower 20 sessions out, the estimated price range, and how often the model's most likely outcome happened in past tests next to the hit rate of always picking the most common outcome.
No. It is a statistical estimate from past prices, shown with its own track record so you can judge it.
