New election polls showing the Brazilian presidential race has tightened into a near-statistical tie between the incumbent-backed candidate and the opposition challenger triggered a sharp rally in local assets, as investors raised their expectations for fiscal discipline in the next administration. The Ibovespa stock index jumped 3.05% on the news, while the Brazilian Real strengthened against the dollar, directly reflecting a drop in Brazil’s political risk premium. The move was sparked by a recent Quaest poll that suggested a razor-thin margin in a potential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.