Sérgio Moro Nears First-Round Victory in Paraná Gubernatorial Race, New Poll Shows

Senator Sérgio Moro is positioned on the brink of an outright victory in the 2026 gubernatorial election for the key southern state of Paraná, according to a new poll that shows the former federal judge holding a lead just below the threshold required to avoid a runoff.

The Neokemp poll, released on Thursday, September 10, 2026, found the candidate for the Liberal Party (PL) leading with 48.8% of voting intentions in the first round of the race. Moro’s closest rival, state deputy Requião Filho (PDT), polled at 23.3%, giving Moro a commanding 25.5-point advantage. A candidate in a Brazilian election must secure more than 50% of the valid votes—meaning those excluding null and blank ballots—to win in the first round.

Moro first gained international fame as the federal judge who led Operation Car Wash (Lava Jato), the massive anti-corruption probe that exposed graft at the highest levels of Brazilian politics and business. He subsequently served as Minister of Justice under former President Jair Bolsonaro before being elected to the Senate for Paraná in 2022. His move to the state executive branch, if successful, would be a major political win for the right-wing opposition aligned with the Bolsonaro family ahead of the 2030 national presidential cycle.

The results show Moro has extended his lead and is now within striking distance of the first-round victory, with the poll’s margin of error being 3.1 percentage points. His principal rival, Requião Filho, is an established politician from a traditional political family in Paraná, and has the backing of the center-left coalition that supports President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The Neokemp data indicates that the race has become a direct confrontation between a political newcomer focused on the anti-corruption legacy and a candidate backed by the state’s political establishment and the sitting federal government.

Paraná, an economically important state with a powerful agricultural and industrial base, has long been a center of gravity for the political right and the anti-corruption movement in Brazil. A first-round victory for Moro would signal strong support for the political right’s agenda in a key electoral college and prevent the Lula-aligned opposition from rallying a broader coalition in a second-round runoff. The election is scheduled for October 4, with a potential runoff date three weeks later should no candidate reach the 50% mark.