Lula’s Disapproval Hits 50%, Pushing Brazil Election Into Technical Tie
New Quaest poll shows President Lula’s net approval at its lowest this year, tied with Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government disapproval rating reached 50% for the first time this year, according to a Quaest poll released on Monday, signaling a significant political risk for the incumbent less than a month before the first round of the Brazil election. The new data shows the president’s approval dropped to 43%, leaving a 7-point negative gap—the largest registered in 2026 and a reversal of an improving trend earlier this year. The rising negative sentiment coincides with the ruling Workers’ Party (PT) candidate entering a technical tie with his main rival in a simulated second-round matchup.
The poll, which surveyed 2,004 people between September 3 and 6, found President Lula and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each holding 41% of the vote in a potential runoff, placing the two candidates in a statistical dead heat. Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains the figurehead of the Brazilian right but is barred from running for office due to a Supreme Court conviction for anti-democratic acts. The Quaest numbers confirm a trend seen across multiple polls showing the left-wing president’s lead narrowing considerably in recent weeks as the televised campaign officially began.
For the brazil lula bolsonaro rivalry, this latest result is a serious blow to the Lula campaign's ambition of winning the presidency without a second-round vote. The current polling scenario suggests that the election will advance to an October runoff, where the tie creates a high-stakes, unpredictable contest for the largest economy in Latin America. The challenge for the incumbent now is to identify and address the source of the growing disapproval, which his opponents are consolidating behind Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who has successfully mobilized the political base of his father.
With the first-round vote scheduled for October, the Lula campaign faces an urgent task to reverse the decline in the brazil lula approval rating. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the initial balloting, the top two finishers will advance to the runoff election. The coming weeks of campaign messaging and debates will be crucial in determining whether the brazil lula administration can stabilize its approval and prevent a full-scale erosion of support that could cost the president his bid for a new term.
What it touches The prospect of a tightly contested second-round election, which increases the likelihood of a major political shift, introduces an element of uncertainty for state-controlled entities. Government policy continuity, particularly regarding the use of state-owned companies to manage economic variables, would be a key point of discussion. The share price of state-controlled oil company Petrobras (PETR4), whose dividend policy and strategic direction are often sensitive to the political climate, may see volatility as the final outcome becomes more difficult to predict.