Lula Approval Slips to 45% as Tight Race with Flávio Bolsonaro Confirms High Political Uncertainty
New Datafolha poll shows President Lula's government disapproval hitting 51%, while his likely 2026 election runoff against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remains a technical tie.
The government of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva saw its disapproval rate rise to 51%, up from 50% in August, according to a new Datafolha poll released Thursday, a critical moment that highlights the narrow path to victory for the incumbent in the looming presidential election. The survey also found that the President’s personal approval, measured by those who rate his government as "good" or "great," slipped to 45%, down from 47% last month. The falling popularity comes as the battle for the presidency next month remains dangerously close, with both leading candidates facing near-record rates of public rejection.
The numbers confirm that the October election will be dominated by a high-stakes, two-sided political fight, with the high disapproval of both leading figures forcing many voters to choose the candidate they dislike the least. In a simulated first-round scenario, President Lula holds a lead over his main rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with 38% to Bolsonaro's 33% of the vote. However, in a simulated second-round runoff, the race is a technical tie: Lula receives 46% of the vote against Senator Bolsonaro's 44%, a result well within the poll's margin of error. The high antipathy toward both candidates is evident in the rejection rates, where Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is rejected by 47% of voters, while Lula is rejected by 45%.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a Senator for Rio de Janeiro, is the standard-bearer for the right-wing bolsonarismo movement in the 2026 contest. His candidacy became the primary focus after his father was made ineligible for office. For foreign observers, this dynamic means the election is less about a clear mandate for either the left-wing Workers' Party (PT) or the right-wing Liberal Party (PL), and more about a referendum on two deeply entrenched and polarizing political dynasties. The steady rise in Lula’s disapproval, which has now crossed the 50% mark, indicates persistent voter concern over the economy, inflation, and a general exhaustion with the long-running political feud that has characterized Brazilian politics for the past decade.
What to watch next is the debate schedule and the impact of mandatory free-to-air campaign slots (known as Horário Eleitoral Gratuito), which have just begun. With the gap between the two candidates at just two percentage points in the runoff, any shift in the government’s economic messaging or any high-profile misstep by either campaign over the coming weeks could prove decisive in pushing the undecided or deeply skeptical voter base toward a clear winner.
What it touches: The persistent uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election continues to drive volatility in assets tied to Brazilian political risk. The close polling between the incumbent and the challenger introduces uncertainty into the outlook for fiscal policy, interest rates, and the future of state-owned enterprises, which can influence the direction of the Brazilian real (BRL) and the local stock market index (Ibovespa).