Lula Approval Rating Steady as Voters Demand Costly Labor Reforms
A new Quaest poll shows Lula with 48% approval after his re-election, but voters are prioritizing expensive labor reforms over fiscal discipline.
Global investors holding emerging market funds are facing a familiar tug-of-war between fiscal discipline and populist spending in Latin America’s largest economy. While international markets have been calling for spending cuts to stabilize the country's rising public debt, local voters are demanding the opposite: expensive labor and social reforms that could pressure corporate margins and government coffers.
A new Quaest poll released on November 8, 2026, shows that 48% of Brazilians approve of the administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while 44% disapprove. This is the first major public opinion survey conducted since the October 25 runoff election. Although the 48% approval rating has remained stable since the eve of the vote, it represents the narrowest margin of post-election support for any re-elected president in Brazil's modern democratic history.
This tight political margin severely limits the administration's political capital to push through market-friendly fiscal reforms, especially as the public prioritizes costly campaign promises. According to the Quaest survey of 2,004 respondents conducted between October 30 and November 2, 2026, the top priority for voters in the upcoming presidential term starting in January 2027 is ending the traditional "6x1" workweek scale (cited by 17% of respondents), followed closely by zeroing taxes on the basic food basket (16%).
The proposed elimination of the 6x1 workweek—which currently allows businesses to schedule six days of work for every one day off—is already facing intense legal challenges in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) from major employer groups. Business associations argue that a mandatory shift to a five-day workweek will dramatically spike labor costs, reduce productivity, and fuel inflation.
At the same time, the poll highlights a deep divide over the country's economic outlook. While 39% of respondents believe the economy will improve over the next 12 months, an equal 39% expect it to deteriorate. Concerns over government spending, public debt, and high interest rates were cited by 27% of those surveyed as their primary worry regarding the federal administration.
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For retail investors tracking these policy risks, the primary vehicle for broad exposure to Brazilian equities is the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, listed in New York, which holds major financial, energy, and materials companies sensitive to the country's fiscal health and labor regulations.
