Final Quaest Poll Measures STF Scandal Impact on Tight Brazil Election Race

A new Quaest presidential poll is scheduled for release today, aiming to gauge the final political risk premium in Brazil's election just two weeks before the first-round vote, with the results expected to show the effect of the severe internal crisis gripping the country’s Supreme Court. The survey, conducted between September 17 and 20, is the first major data set to fully capture voter reaction to the ongoing corruption allegations against Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remains statistically tied, making any shift tied to the institutional crisis critical.

The crisis centers on Justice Alexandre de Moraes, one of Brazil’s most powerful figures, who is also the head of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) overseeing the October 4 election. Moraes is facing accusations of undue influence peddling and misuse of power following the declassification of Federal Police documents that allegedly show numerous communications between the Justice and Daniel Vorcaro, a banker arrested for a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. The revelations have become a flashpoint for the right-wing opposition, who accuse the STF of judicial overreach and political bias in a crisis that the court has described as the most severe reputational challenge it has ever faced.

The immediate political stakes are high, given the previous Quaest poll’s result, which signaled a significant tightening of the contest. The survey conducted last week (Sept 10-13) showed Senator Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, numerically ahead of President Lula in a simulated second-round runoff, 42% to 40%, placing the two candidates in a statistical tie for the first time in that series. This latest poll was specifically designed to measure voter intent, rejection rates, and the political cost of the Moraes scandal, testing whether the institutional turmoil will push crucial undecided or moderate voters toward the opposition.

The findings released today will set the definitive tone for the final two weeks of campaigning before the October 4 first-round election. The presidential contest will proceed to a second round on October 25 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes. With the institutional stability of the STF now a central election issue alongside the traditional concerns of economic policy and crime, the poll will provide the last major measure of how Brazilian voters are weighing the candidates’ responses to the unfolding judicial crisis before they head to the ballot box.

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What it touches Presidential election dynamics remain the primary driver of sovereign risk in Brazil, and today’s poll release is expected to directly impact investor sentiment. A result indicating increased momentum for the opposition, Flávio Bolsonaro, could be interpreted as market-positive due to his perceived preference for fiscal orthodoxy, potentially strengthening the Brazilian real (BRL) and boosting the benchmark Ibovespa stock index. Conversely, a clear gain for the incumbent would introduce uncertainty and volatility.