Warren Buffett-Backed StoneCo Faces Q3 Test Under 14% Brazil Rates
StoneCo reports Q3 2026 earnings on November 12 as Brazil's high Selic interest rates squeeze credit books and pressure full-year growth targets.
American retail investors holding shares of high-growth financial technology companies are facing a crucial test of how macroeconomic pressure can disrupt even the most promising business models. On Thursday, November 12, 2026, after the market closes, the Warren Buffett-backed payment processor StoneCo Ltd. is scheduled to release its third-quarter financial results. The upcoming report will show how deeply a prolonged period of double-digit interest rates in Latin America’s largest economy is cutting into corporate profit margins.
StoneCo, which provides payment, banking, and credit solutions to small and medium-sized businesses across Brazil, has seen its operational momentum collide with restrictive monetary policy. The Central Bank of Brazil's benchmark interest rate, known as the Selic, is currently hovering near 14%. This is significantly higher than the 12.5% rate StoneCo management originally assumed when setting its financial targets for the year. Because StoneCo carries more fixed-rate assets than liabilities, its funding costs rise alongside the Selic, creating a direct drag on earnings.
During its previous quarterly update on August 13, 2026, StoneCo management warned that the elevated rate environment would likely force full-year results toward the lower end of its guided ranges. Chief Financial Officer Mateus Scherer Salgado noted that each 100-basis-point increase in the Selic rate exerts a pretax headwind of approximately 200 million to 250 million Brazilian reais ($36 million to $45 million). For the third quarter, Wall Street analysts expect the company to post earnings of $0.48 per share on revenue of $715.69 million.
Beyond top-line revenue, investors will closely monitor the health of StoneCo's expanding credit book. In the second quarter of 2026, the company’s credit portfolio grew 16% quarter-over-quarter to 3.8 billion reais. However, this rapid expansion has been accompanied by rising delinquency rates. Non-performing loans (NPLs) older than 90 days climbed to 8.6% in the second quarter, up from 7.0% in the previous period. High borrowing costs make it increasingly difficult for local merchants to service their debts, raising the risk of further loan-loss provisions in the Q3 report.
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StoneCo Ltd. is listed in New York on the Nasdaq exchange and can be found in major emerging market fintech and Latin American exchange-traded funds, such as the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF.
