Wall Street moved on Brazil in September. Fitch is watching the other side
In one month, the share of Latin American fund managers bullish on Brazilian stocks went from 34% to 73% in Bank of America's survey. Morgan Stanley raised its Petrobras target and BlackRock launched a Brazilian bond fund in Europe. Fitch, meanwhile, warns that high interest rates are driving more defaults and downgrades.
In September, three of Wall Street's biggest names made moves on Brazil. A fourth, a ratings agency, pointed to what could go wrong.
Bank of America: from 34% to 73% in one month. Bank of America's Latin America Fund Manager Survey, published on September 15, asked about 30 regional fund managers, with roughly $90 billion under management, where Brazil's main stock index would end 2026. The share expecting 180,000 points or more rose from 34% in August to 73% in September, and 46% now see 200,000 or more, up from none a month earlier (Bank of America, as reported by Bloomberg Línea). A survey measures sentiment, not results: it describes what these managers expect, not what will happen.
Morgan Stanley on Petrobras. On September 28, Morgan Stanley kept its Overweight rating on Petrobras and raised its price target for the company's New York-listed shares (PBR) from $20 to $28, assuming Brent crude at $90 a barrel in 2026 (research note, as reported by IstoÉ Dinheiro). A price target is one bank's view, not a forecast by BRZ News.
BlackRock: a Brazilian bond fund, listed in Europe. BlackRock launched the iShares Brazil BRL Govt Bond UCITS ETF (BRGV) on Euronext Amsterdam on September 15. It trades in US dollars, tracks a J.P. Morgan index of Brazilian government bonds in reais (GBI-EM Brazil Custom) and lists an ongoing charge of about 0.35% (BlackRock key information document). As a European UCITS fund, it is not offered to investors in the United States.
The other side: Fitch. In August, Fitch's analysts said high interest rates have fueled a rise in defaults and downgrades among Brazilian companies, and will keep weighing on growth (LatinFinance, August 12). Optimism about prices and stress on balance sheets are happening in the same market, at the same time.
Why it matters in English. Most of this comes out in Portuguese, in research notes, or behind paywalls. The BRZ Daily Brief tracks what Wall Street does on Brazil, with the sources linked, in plain English, every morning. It's free: brznews.com/daily.
Sources: Bank of America Latin America Fund Manager Survey (September 15, 2026, via Bloomberg Línea); Morgan Stanley research note on Petrobras (September 28, 2026, via IstoÉ Dinheiro); BlackRock, iShares Brazil BRL Govt Bond UCITS ETF key information document; LatinFinance, "Fitch sees more trouble ahead for Brazil corporates" (August 12, 2026). Bank views, not BRZ News forecasts. Informational content. Not investment advice.