Speculators Hold Near-Record Bet on Soybean Prices Despite Brazil's Record Harvest

Large speculators on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) maintained a substantial net-long position in soybean futures, holding 281,581 net contracts as of Tuesday, September 22, according to the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This net figure, which represents the difference between long (buy) and short (sell) positions held by non-commercial traders—a category that includes large hedge funds and money managers—highlights continued financial optimism for rising prices despite the fundamental pressure of massive South American supply.

The position reflects 370,525 long contracts against 88,944 short contracts held by this group of financial players in the CBOT’s main soybean contract. The weekly report, which is one of the most closely watched gauges of sentiment in commodity markets, covers 1,114,328 total contracts of open interest in the market, illustrating the degree of speculative conviction on the price direction.

The positioning is notable because it comes at a time when the physical soybean market is being dominated by a record harvest out of Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the commodity. Brazilian crop agency Conab had projected a record 2025/2026 crop, with estimates ranging as high as 180.25 million metric tons, leading to record exports forecast to be above 113 million tons.

The sheer volume of soybeans flowing out of Brazil—driven by expanding farmland and a favorable growing season—has fundamentally shifted the global supply balance, putting consistent downward pressure on prices in the agricultural sector. This is an inherent tension in the market: while Brazilian farmers and exporters move a record supply, financial traders are placing a significant bet that other factors, such as global demand or future weather risks in the next US or South American growing seasons, will overcome the current supply glut.

The coming weeks will determine whether the speculative net-long position proves prescient or becomes susceptible to a sharp unwinding. The market will be watching the pace of shipments, especially to China—Brazil’s main buyer—as well as any early forecasts for the upcoming planting seasons in the US and the new season beginning in Brazil, which could either alleviate or intensify the existing pressure from the current record supply.

What it touches

The collective positioning of large non-commercial traders in Chicago soybean futures is a key sentiment indicator for the entire global agricultural commodity complex. The physical market reality set by Brazil’s record production affects major integrated agribusiness companies with ties to the country, including those involved in soybean processing, handling, and trading, such as JBS—which has a significant exposure to the animal protein and feed market.