The intensifying El Niño phenomenon is threatening Brazil's hard-won progress on inflation, with a new analysis projecting that the prices of fresh, unprocessed foods could jump by nearly 20% in the coming months. A study from the Netherlands-based Rabobank, an institution specializing in agribusiness finance, estimates that a "strong El Niño" scenario could raise the price of *in natura* foods—primarily vegetables, fruits, and meats—by as much as 19.9%. The key concern is the knock-on effect on the country's official inflation index, known as the IPCA, which measures the cost of living for most Brazilian households.