Brazil’s Surprise 0.06% Inflation Print Fuels Rally on B3, Sharpens Bets for Aggressive Selic Rate Cut
Brazil’s Surprise 0.06% Inflation Print Fuels Rally on B3, Sharpens Bets for Aggressive Selic Rate Cut

Brazil's benchmark stock index, the Ibovespa, rallied sharply on Tuesday after the country's mid-month inflation preview, the IPCA-15, registered a far softer-than-expected increase for July, strengthening the case for a more aggressive cut to the benchmark Selic interest rate. The monthly inflation index rose only 0.06% in July, dramatically undershooting the market consensus forecast of around 0.20% and driving the 12-month accumulated figure down to 4.52%. The deceleration puts the year-over-year rate right at the upper bound of the Central Bank of Brazil’s (BCB) inflation target tolerance band (3.0% ± 1.5%), giving the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) significant room to accelerate its easing cycle at the next meeting.
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