The credibility of Brazil's New Fiscal Framework (*Novo Arcabouço Fiscal*) is rapidly eroding among analysts, who warn the government's growing reliance on accounting exceptions and a widening real deficit are failing to stabilize the country's public debt. The framework, which replaced the previous Spending Cap in August 2023, was designed as a crucial tool for financial market predictability, but recent data and spending adjustments suggest the rule is already buckling under pressure from mandatory expenditures. Analysts now project that under the current fiscal path, the country’s gross public debt could reach 106% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2030, a trajectory that maintains an elevated sovereign risk premium for international investors.