The most significant threat to Brazil's economic stability is not a sudden fiscal collapse, but the continued, gradual deterioration of its public accounts, a dynamic which is forcing the country’s benchmark interest rate to remain prohibitively high. Market forecasts are currently projecting a central government primary deficit of R$59.1 billion (approximately $11.3 billion) for 2026, according to the Finance Ministry’s latest monthly survey of market economists. The inability of the government and Congress to deliver a credible plan for fiscal consolidation is reinforcing investor distrust and directly raising the cost of borrowing for the entire economy.