Brazil Lifts 2026 Trade Surplus Forecast to $90 Billion

Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC) has raised its 2026 trade surplus projection to $90 billion, up from its previous estimate of $72.1 billion. The revised forecast represents a 32.3% increase compared to the $68.1 billion surplus recorded in 2025. The upward revision follows a strong first-half performance, highlighted by record-breaking June exports of $36.28 billion.

The export boom is primarily driven by a surge in crude oil shipments. Extractive industry shipments, which include crude oil, jumped 58.4% in June compared to the same period last year. This rapid growth occurred despite a 12% export tax on crude oil implemented in March. The robust trade performance is injecting massive dollar liquidity into the Brazilian economy, supporting the local currency and easing fiscal-related foreign exchange pressures.

The positive trade outlook had a favorable impact on local financial markets. In Monday trading, the benchmark Ibovespa index (IBOV) rose 0.74% to 174,070.27 points. Shares of state-run oil giant Petrobras (PETR4) gained 0.76% to trade at 38.25 BRL, while mining giant Vale (VALE3) edged up 0.77% to 78.84 BRL, and financial heavyweight Itau Unibanco (ITUB4) advanced 0.64% to 42.74 BRL.