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Brazil’s Fiscal Debt Structure Raises Post-Election Exchange Rate Risk, UBS Says

Brazil’s Fiscal Debt Structure Raises Post-Election Exchange Rate Risk, UBS Says

D
Diane Cole
Sep 7, 2026, 11:24 PM
Brazil’s Fiscal Debt Structure Raises Post-Election Exchange Rate Risk, UBS Says
Illustration — BRZ.news

UBS Global Wealth Management is warning that the structure of Brazil’s national debt has made the country more vulnerable to a sharp, accelerated currency depreciation following the upcoming election, a risk that falls squarely on the next administration. The core problem, according to the bank’s analysis, is that a substantial portion of the government's outstanding liabilities are now tied to the country’s benchmark Selic interest rate, creating a mechanism that could rapidly amplify financial stress if the new government fails to present a credible plan to control spending.

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