BTG Pactual Shuffles July Small Caps on Sticky 14% Selic
BTG Pactual rotates its July 2026 small-cap portfolio, dropping Banco Pine and SBF for Banco Inter and Marcopolo to hedge against a sticky 14% Selic rate.
The Central Bank of Brazil’s latest Focus survey shows market analysts have raised their year-end 2026 Selic forecast to 14.00%. Pushed upward by sticky inflation expectations now hovering around 5.33%, the prolonged high-interest-rate environment is forcing institutional managers to pivot. In response, BTG Pactual has restructured its July 2026 Small Cap portfolio, rotating out of highly leveraged equities and into resilient, cash-generating names.
In its latest monthly rebalancing, BTG Pactual removed Banco Pine (PINE4) and SBF (SBFG3) from its recommended list. To replace them, the bank added Banco Inter (INBR32) and Marcopolo (POMO4). The strategy aims to prioritize robust cash generation and defensive balance sheets as the broader Small Cap Index (SMLL) continues to face pressure from restrictive monetary policy. Banco Inter enters the portfolio trading at an attractive 7.1x projected 2026 earnings after a year-to-date correction, while Marcopolo is favored for its accelerating operational momentum.
Meanwhile, low-income homebuilder Tenda (TEND3) remains one of BTG’s top high-rate hedges. Tenda currently trades at 6.5x projected 2026 earnings, supported by strong regulatory tailwinds from the government's Minha Casa Minha Vida housing program. These subsidies help insulate the homebuilder from the affordability squeeze affecting the rest of the real estate sector.
This strategic rotation comes amid a broader market lift today. In local trading, the Ibovespa (IBOV) gained 0.74% to reach 174,070.27 points. Among major blue chips, Petrobras (PETR4) rose 0.76% to 38.25, Vale (VALE3) edged up 0.77% to 78.84, and Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) advanced 0.64% to 42.74.