Presidential Candidate Caiado Promises Amnesty for Jan 8 Convicts, Raising Brazil’s Institutional Risk

Presidential candidate Ronaldo Caiado, the former Governor of Goiás and nominee for the Social Democratic Party (PSD), has pledged that his first act in office, if elected, would be to send a bill to Congress granting a broad amnesty to all those convicted for the January 8th, 2023, attacks on the Three Powers Plaza. The promise, which Caiado frames as necessary to “pacify the country” and remove the divisive issue from national politics, immediately introduces a profound institutional uncertainty to the 2026 election cycle by challenging the authority of the Supreme Federal Court (STF).

The proposal directly sets the Executive and Legislative branches on a collision course with the Judiciary, specifically the STF, which has already handed down multiple severe convictions for those involved in the pro-Bolsonaro riots. Legal experts and STF ministers have previously signaled that a broad amnesty for crimes against the democratic state would likely be declared unconstitutional, which would trigger a constitutional crisis if the Supreme Court were to strike down a law signed by the new President. This judicial pushback is rooted in the long-standing legal principle that acts directly attacking the democratic system cannot be easily pardoned.

The political stakes of the promise are immense, as the amnesty would benefit high-profile figures, including former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced in late 2025 to over 27 years in prison for his role in the attempted coup d'état. By tying his campaign to the most severe political conflict in the country, Caiado is positioning himself to consolidate the right-wing electorate, but simultaneously signaling an aggressive approach toward the judicial branch that foreign investors view as a bulwark against political overreach.

For the Brazilian economy, the commitment to institutional confrontation represents a material political risk that can weigh on markets. The stability of the three branches of government is a key metric watched by investors, and a direct threat to the rulings and independence of the Supreme Court translates into a higher risk premium for Brazilian assets. If the issue remains central to the presidential campaign, this instability could continue to pressure the Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) and keep a ceiling on local equity valuations in the benchmark Ibovespa (EWZ), as concerns over the judicial framework overshadow economic fundamentals.

What to watch next is the reaction of the STF and the current administration to the proposal, as well as whether other presidential frontrunners are forced to take a definitive position on the amnesty, ensuring the debate over institutional stability remains a central focus leading into the October election.