Lula Pulls Ahead in 2026 Polls as US Tariffs Ignite Campaign

A new Genial/Quaest poll released in July 2026 shows Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva widening his lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. In a hypothetical second-round runoff, Lula leads Bolsonaro 45% to 37%, up from a 44% to 38% lead in June and a near-tie earlier in the year. The widening margin has shifted sentiment in predictive markets, where platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now price Lula’s reelection probability at over 60%, up from a 50-50 coin-flip in early 2026.

The escalating trade dispute with the United States has emerged as a central campaign flashpoint. The US is set to impose 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports on July 22, citing unfair trade practices. Lula has framed the trade penalties as a political attack, blaming lobbying efforts by the Bolsonaro family for provoking the White House—a narrative supported by 47% of surveyed voters. The Brazilian government has already threatened reciprocal countermeasures under its Reciprocity Law.

For financial markets, Lula's strengthening position reduces immediate political uncertainty but signals a continuation of interventionist fiscal and trade policies through a potential fourth term. Investors are closely monitoring the impact of the trade friction and domestic policy continuity on Brazilian assets, including the benchmark Bovespa index (IBOV), the Brazilian real (USD/BRL), and long-term interest rate futures (DI1F33).