President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government has settled into a near-even split of public opinion, with a new Nexus/BTG Pactual poll showing national approval at 47% and disapproval at 49%, a deadlock that suggests an enduring ceiling on pro-reform sentiment for Brazilian markets. The poll, released Monday and conducted between July 24 and 26, confirms for investors that the deeply polarized political climate remains firmly entrenched, limiting the Executive Branch’s ability to secure broad legislative support for critical fiscal and structural measures. The persistent stalemate, evident in the tiny two-point gap between those who approve and those who reject the administration, places political risk squarely back on the agenda for the **Ibovespa (IBOV)** and creates further volatility for the **Brazilian Real (USD/BRL)**, which closed Friday at 5.091851 against the dollar.