Tightening Brazil Election Race Lifts Real as Markets Price In Bolsonaro Fiscal Restraint
Tightening Brazil Election Race Lifts Real as Markets Price In Bolsonaro Fiscal Restraint

The Brazilian Real (BRL) strengthened sharply against the U.S. Dollar this week, with the currency acting as a direct barometer of market confidence following new presidential election polls that showed the race tightening considerably. Trading in São Paulo saw the dollar fall by 0.60% against the Real, trading at 5.1247 as of Tuesday afternoon, following several polls that placed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie for a potential run-off. This immediate appreciation is being driven by the perception that a tighter election race increases the possibility of a shift toward more conservative fiscal management, reducing the risk premium embedded in Brazilian assets.
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