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Brazil Center-South Sugarcane Crop Forecast Jumps to 641 Million Tons, Driving Record Ethanol Shift

Brazil Center-South Sugarcane Crop Forecast Jumps to 641 Million Tons, Driving Record Ethanol Shift

C
Carlos Mendes
Aug 3, 2026, 10:56 AM
Brazil Center-South Sugarcane Crop Forecast Jumps to 641 Million Tons, Driving Record Ethanol Shift
Illustration — BRZ.news

The 2026/2027 sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s Center-South region is poised to be the second-largest on record, with updated forecasts confirming high operational activity and increased optionality for major producers like São Martinho (SMTO3) and Cosan-controlled Raízen (RAIZ4). Consulting firm StoneX has revised its projection for the Center-South crushing to **641.1 million tons** of sugarcane, a 4.9% increase over the previous cycle, driven by favorable rainfall distribution that boosted agricultural productivity. This near-record volume provides the critical raw material necessary for mills, many of which in São Paulo state are operating on a demanding three-shift schedule, to execute a strategic pivot in their product mix.

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